About the role

We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.

This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

Scope of Work

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard

What you’ll bring

• Local political analysts with hands-on experience on specific races in swing states: current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent cycles in the same state
• On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, the candidates, and the local political environment, from roles such as university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff, or state political-risk analyst
• A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races — not retrospective commentary
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
• Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
• Backgrounds we look at first: political science departments and survey research centers at universities in the target states, state and regional pollsters, state-level campaign and party analytics teams, and decision desks or race-ratings outlets with state-specific coverage. National forecasting or political-risk experience is welcome when paired with deep knowledge of a specific state. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.
• Not a fit
• Profiles whose experience is mainly international politics, geopolitics, or country risk, with little or no work on US races
• Analysts who have not worked on a current or recent US race in the state they would cover
• Pure communications or journalism profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment
• Academic profiles whose work is purely theoretical, with no analysis of live races

Benefits

Not provided in the source listing.

Contract & Payment Terms

• Point-in-time discipline
• Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.
• We consider all qualified applicants without regard to legally protected characteristics and provide reasonable accommodations upon request.
• You will be engaged as an independent contractor.
• This is a fully remote role that can be completed on your own schedule.
• Projects can be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on needs and performance.
• Your work at Mercor will not involve access to confidential or proprietary information from any employer, client, or institution.
• Payments are weekly on Stripe or Wise based on services rendered.
• Please note: We are unable to support H1-B or STEM OPT candidates at this time.

Where you can work

This role is open to people based in: Canada, United States.

Remote does not always mean work from any country. Always check the employer’s location and working-hour requirements.